Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change

Robust decision-making is being increasingly used to support environmental resources decisions and policy analysis under changing climate and society. In this context, a robust decision is a decision that is as much as possible insensitive to a large degree of uncertainty and ensures certain performance across multiple plausible futures. Yet, the concept of robustness is neither unique nor static. Multiple robustness metrics, such as maximin, optimism-pessimism, max regret, have been proposed in the literature, reflecting diverse optimistic/pessimistic attitudes by the decision maker. Further, these attitudes can evolve in time as a response to sequences of favorable (or adverse) events, inducing possible dynamic changes in the robustness metrics. In this paper, we explore the impact of alternative definitions of robustness and their evolution in time for a case of water resources system management under changing climate. We study the decisions of the Lake Como operator, who is called to regulate the lake by balancing irrigation supply and flood control, under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Results show a considerable variability in the system performance across multiple robustness metrics. In fact, the mis-definition of the actual decision maker’s attitude biases the simulation of its future decisions and produces a general underestimation of the system performance. The analysis of the dynamic evolution of the decision maker’s preferences further confirms the potentially strong impact of changing robustness definition on the decision-making outcomes. Climate change impact assessment studies should therefore include the definition of robustness among the uncertain parameters of the problem in order to analyze future human decisions under uncertainty.     

Sexual reproduction and early life‐history traits of the Mediterranean soft coral Alcyonium acaule

Understanding processes that contribute to a better comprehension of the population dynamics of long‐lived species is critical for the maintenance and potential recovery of such species. Despite the abundance of soft corals in Mediterranean rocky reefs, little information exists on their life histories and reproductive patterns. In this study, we assessed the main reproductive characteristics and early life‐history traits of the long‐lived soft coral Alcyonium acaule. The sex ratio was 1:1; the smallest fertile colonies were one finger in size (2.1 ± 0.6 cm in height), and both colony and polyp fertility increased with colony size. Likewise, the number of eggs and spermary sacs per polyp increased significantly with colony size, whereas the diameter of the female and male sexual products did not. Over 6 years of observations (2007–2012), spawning occurred primarily in July, after the seawater reached 20 °C, in a single spawning episode per year. Approximately 80% of female colonies released eggs, which were retained on the surface of the mother colony by mucous strings for up to a few days. High fertilization rates were observed during spawning in 2008 and 2009 (94.9% and 87.0%, respectively). The timing of development was ~24 h for the blastulae, ~48–72 h for the planulae and 8–22 days for metamorphosis into primary polyps. Survivorship of planulae was relatively high (~50% at 45 days after release), but only 24% of larvae metamorphosed into primary polyps, and their survivorship was moderate after 2 months (65% in 2008 and 74% in 2009). Asexual reproduction was negligible, indicating that sexual reproduction is the main mechanism supporting the maintenance and recovery of populations.     

Linking foraging behavior and diet in a diving seabird

Foraging behavior and diet of breeding seabirds may be analysed simultaneously with the combined use of remote sensing devices and stable isotope analysis. Imperial shag, Phalacrocorax atriceps, breeding at Punta León colony, Argentina, were equipped with global positioning system (GPS) loggers to record foraging trips and blood samples were taken after removal of the devices in order to analyse their nitrogen and carbon stable isotope composition in whole blood and plasma. Whole blood was correlated to plasma isotopic composition for each individual (n = 35), linking diet in the short and medium term. Sexes did not differ in isotopic signatures. The maximum distance reached and the total number of dives that individuals made on two consecutive foraging trips were correlated to their plasma nitrogen isotopic signature. Individuals that went further from the colony and dived fewer times presented more positive signatures, indicative of benthic prey consumption (e.g. Raneya brasiliensis). Diet was predominantly benthic with some individuals incorporating pelagic prey (Engraulis anchoita) and even cephalopods (Octopus tehuelchus). Within breeding pairs (n = 9), different combinations of foraging and prey preferences were observed. Estimated trophic levels of these individuals were similar to those of the same species in other colonies further south along the Patagonian coast.     

Engineering geomorphological characterisation of the Vajont Slide,Italy, and a new interpretation of the chronology and evolution of the landslide

Although the 1963 Vajont Slide in Italy has been extensively studied for over 50 years, its regional geological and geomorphological context has been neglected. In this paper, we use field observations and remote sensing data to elucidate the interaction between endogenic and exogenic processes that brought the north slope of Monte Toc to failure. We present the first detailed pre- and post-failure engineering geomorphology maps of the slide area. The maps delineate two main landslide blocks, several sub-blocks, compressional and extensional zones, and secondary failures in the deposit. The maps provide new insights into the kinematics, dynamics and evolution of the slide. Finally, we discuss the origin of Vajont Gorge and a prehistoric failure that occurred at the same location as the 1963 slide. We propose, as part of a newly developed multi-stage landscape evolution sequence, that the prehistoric failure was a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (sackung) that initiated during deglaciation and continued to slowly move until the catastrophic failure in 1963. We argue that the gorge was created by these deep-seated slow movements.     

Impact of drilling mud on chemistry and microbiology of an Upper Triassic groundwater after drilling and testing an exploration well for aquifer thermal energy storage in Berlin (Germany)

After completion of an exploration well, sandstones of the Exter Formation were hydraulically tested to determine the hydraulic properties and to evaluate chemical and microbial processes caused by drilling and water production. The aim was to determine the suitability of the formation as a reservoir for aquifer thermal energy storage. The tests revealed a hydraulic conductivity of 1–2 E-5 m/s of the reservoir, resulting in a productivity index of 0.6–1 m³/h/bar. A hydraulic connection of the Exter Formation to the overlaying, artesian “Rupelbasissand” cannot be excluded. Water samples were collected for chemical and microbiological analyses. The water was similarly composed as sea water with a maximum salinity of 24.9 g/L, dominated by NaCl (15.6 g/L Cl and 7.8 g/L Na). Until the end of the tests, the water was affected by drilling mud as indicated by the high pH (8.9) and high bicarbonate concentration (359 mg/L) that both resulted from the impact of sodium carbonate (Na₂CO₃) additives. The high amount of dissolved organic matter (>?58 mg/L) and its molecular-weight distribution pattern indicated that residues of cellulose, an ingredient of the drilling mud, were still present at the end of the tests. Clear evidence of this contamination gave the measured uranine that was added as a tracer into the drilling mud. During fluid production, the microbial community structure and abundance changed and correlated with the content of drilling mud. Eight taxa of sulfate-reducing bacteria, key organisms in processes like bio-corrosion and bio-clogging, were identified. It can be assumed that their activity will be affected during usage of the reservoir.